A team led by Astrid de Wijn from Stockholm University and Andrew Ringsmuth from the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz and the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) Vienna used a mathematical model to investigate how such polarised bubbles arise, act and how they might be counteracted – this study was published in the journal “Scientific Reports”.

Filter bubbles are strengthened by algorithms designed to show people more advertisements. When it comes to global problems like climate change, there are two stages in the social dynamics, explains Ringsmuth: “First, society quickly polarises into two groups: those who agree to cooperate with the necessary measures, and those who agree to resist change ”.

Then there is a long-lasting “tug-of-war” between the groups – efforts by one group only lead to increased resistance from the other. The members of the two groups, each with closely aligned views, reinforce each other’s opinions: They selectively share information with one another that fits their worldview and tend to ignore opposing arguments and facts.

The researchers explain that there can only be a winner if one of the groups largely dissolves, and polarised groups can only be attacked at the margins through constructive discussion.

“We believe that social media networks play a decisive role here,” says researcher Astrid de Wijn: “In order to hold our attention longer and show us more advertising, they use algorithms that appeal to primitive instincts – they either strengthen our sense of belonging through content with which we already agree, or outrage us with things that we assign to a contrary group.”

This can lead to “opinion bubbles” of unprecedented proportions and a heated public dispute that is exactly the opposite of what is needed: an objective discourse on how to solve the problem.

Constructive exchange can actually only take place at the edges of these opinion bubbles, according to the researchers: Accordingly, individual members of one bubble should come into contact with members of the other bubble and confront them with alternative views, for example that it might be necessary after all to fight rapidly against climate change.

“You often have to go through very difficult conversations because nobody wants their worldview attacked, and we all like to ignore inconvenient evidence,” says Ringsmuth. “However, our research shows that these interactions are essential in order to mitigate climate change to the necessary extent and with the necessary speed.”

The good news from the model runs is that bubbles can sometimes burst quickly. Moreover, small changes, for example in the social and political framework, can have a major impact, whether “the system tips over to complete cooperation or rejection,” the researchers explain.

It would of course be very helpful if the filter-bubble-generating (not really “social”) media were turned into media that promote constructive exchange between the polarised groups: “These could be a powerful engine for collaboration,” says Ringsmuth.

The original research is openly accessible here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-87109-x

The above is translated from an article in the Austrian news media, originally published in German at https://steiermark.orf.at/stories/3111366/ on July 5, 2021.

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